Earnings in NFLX are after the close today. NFLX stock is down 7% from its highs of $423 on Jun 21, about 3 ½ weeks ago. The Projected price move for earnings on the TD Ameritrade Platform is around $30, projecting about a 7% potential move in the stock. The July 20 At the Money Straddle for this week is around $34, projecting a potential move of about 8.6% up or down. Bottom line , the projected moves are between roughly 7 and 8 ½ %. What range does that project for where NFLX could possibly be tomorrow in the AM when the stock opens? The answer using the current price of $393 is: $359 to $426. There is a high Probability tomorrow morning, NFLX will be somewhere between $359 and $426, up or down about 8 ½%. Now to today, what would I do? Do I know what will happen tomorrow? Of course I don’t know what will happen tomorrow, either do you. But the question to answer is this: Do I think NFLX will be between 359 and 426 or do I think it will be outside this range. Either answer is still going to make the strategy I pick a speculative play and I will be careful not to trade too large. If one thinks the range will be between 359 and 426, I would choose some type of range bound strategy like Iron Condors or Butterfly. If I think the range will be outside 359 and 426, I will pick a more speculative strategy like a Long Straddle or Strangle. A 3rd choice is to take a directional opinion up or down and use a strategy like a long vertical or directional Butterfly to express that directional opinion. I will choose a directional bullish Butterfly on the upside that would benefit from IV decreasing on the upside, a price increase that could help me, if move doesn’t go too far through my short strike, and if I’m wrong , it’s a cheap shot. Why am I going to take a bullish outlook? This is pure speculative and I am going for a home-run with a small amount of capital I have.
TSLA is trading at 312 +3 for today. I’m looking for a cheap shot on the upside. 3 weeks ago, TSLA traded $373. Today it has bounced a little but is still trading 16% lower than it did 3 weeks ago. If I am looking for more of a bounce over the next 2 weeks, here is a trade in the July 20 Expiration , I did today.
Trade: Buy 1 320 Call, Sell 2 330 Call, Buy 1 340 Call, 1.12 Debit. July 20 Expiration. Looking for TSLA to be between 317 and 345 over the next 7-8 days. This is an 11 Day trade. My profit Target is around 40% and look to get out of this trade in 7-9 Days. I paid 1.12 Debit and would like to sell it out for around 1.55 Credit. If TSLA trades under $300 in the next 7 Days, I probably would get out.
Monday, Jul 2 of this week, TSLA traded intraday at 364, it closed at $335. Today, Friday July 6, TSLA is trading at $308, down 15% or 56 points from Monday’s Highs! You can check the proposed reasons for this on the web or a multitude of places, so I won’t focus on the Pundits opinions. What I will focus on is this: If I think TSLA will recover some of the 56 points it lost this week , maybe over the next 2-3 weeks, how can I get long? Better yet, how can I get long without getting my face ripped off if I’m wrong and TSLA goes down more? I have many choices to get long TSLA , but will focus on 3 popular ones. I can buy a long call or a long Vertical, 2 popular choices. Both have decent risk if I’m wrong. My third choice involves starting with a long vertical and then selling a short vertical against it where the short strike of both spreads is the same. What is this called? A Butterfly Trade. This is much cheaper dollar wise than a long call or vertical. Can this Butterfly trade make as much money on the upside as a long call or long vertical? Usually not, but in some cases yes. I also would place this trade a bit out-of-the money on the call side if taking a Bullish stance. So going with an assumption we think TSLA can increase some over the next 2-3 weeks and recover some of the 56 points it has lost since Monday’s highs, here is the trade idea. TSLA is currently at the 309 area. I will use the Jul 27 Expiration, 21 Days out from now. I will Buy 1 Jul 27 325 Call, Sell 2 Jul 27 335 Calls, and Buy 1 Jul 27 345 Call for .80 Debit. My max Risk is the debit or $80. I would like the stock ideally to go near my short strike as we get closer to the Jul 27 Expiration, sort of the sweet spot. I placed my short strike at around a 30 Delta, why? A 30 Delta indicates that TSLA has about an 60% probability of touching my short strike between now and expiration. My Plan would be to hold the trade about half of the duration I am Trading . This is an 21 Day trade, so I would probably look to stay in this trade at the most, about 10-11 Days. My plan would be to make 50% of my total capital; expenditure. If I pay .80, would look to sell out at 1.20 credit. That’s my Cheap Bullish shot idea on an expensive stock like TSLA. Remember, this is a Speculative play on a Volatile stock and only would consider this trade if I had a bullish bias on TSLA over the next 3 weeks.