Earnings in NFLX are after the close today. NFLX stock is down 7% from its highs of $423 on Jun 21, about 3 ½ weeks ago. The Projected price move for earnings on the TD Ameritrade Platform is around $30, projecting about a 7% potential move in the stock. The July 20 At the Money Straddle for this week is around $34, projecting a potential move of about 8.6% up or down. Bottom line , the projected moves are between roughly 7 and 8 ½ %. What range does that project for where NFLX could possibly be tomorrow in the AM when the stock opens? The answer using the current price of $393 is: $359 to $426. There is a high Probability tomorrow morning, NFLX will be somewhere between $359 and $426, up or down about 8 ½%. Now to today, what would I do? Do I know what will happen tomorrow? Of course I don’t know what will happen tomorrow, either do you. But the question to answer is this: Do I think NFLX will be between 359 and 426 or do I think it will be outside this range. Either answer is still going to make the strategy I pick a speculative play and I will be careful not to trade too large. If one thinks the range will be between 359 and 426, I would choose some type of range bound strategy like Iron Condors or Butterfly. If I think the range will be outside 359 and 426, I will pick a more speculative strategy like a Long Straddle or Strangle. A 3rd choice is to take a directional opinion up or down and use a strategy like a long vertical or directional Butterfly to express that directional opinion. I will choose a directional bullish Butterfly on the upside that would benefit from IV decreasing on the upside, a price increase that could help me, if move doesn’t go too far through my short strike, and if I’m wrong , it’s a cheap shot. Why am I going to take a bullish outlook? This is pure speculative and I am going for a home-run with a small amount of capital I have.