CMG bearish butterfly trade idea

monarch butterfly isolated on white backgroundI am looking at a speculative option trading opportunity in CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill). The stock has been selling off a bit since releasing its 2nd quarter earnings release and following a 23% rise in July. The strategy I am looking to use is a bearish “put” butterfly. A butterfly spread with this structure looks to gain value as the stock goes lower. Using the put options that expire in 10 days, on August 21st. I like buying one 760 put, selling two 740 puts and buying one 720 put. Currently with CMG trading at the $741 area, this spread is trading at a mid price of $6.75 per spread. I look to close the trade when it reaches a 15% profit based on the cost of the trade. I will also close it if it reaches a 15% loss. This is a speculative play so I will keep trade costs low.
Mark Fenton

VXX Bearish Put Butterfly Trade

It looks like the problems with Greece and “Grexit” may be behind us. Volatility of the market is still overall a little bit high.

An interesting play here would be for a further pullback in the VIX. Already, after comments coming from Greek leaders, it appears they will be willing to except their creditors terms or most of them.

With the holiday weekend coming and of course summer normally having a lower volume, volatility could see a short-term pullback.

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The ETF, VXX is a very liquid an easy way to play options in market volatility. The strategy I like here is the bearish put butterfly in the VXX.

While a trader could structure the trade in different ways, one way would be to use the July 17th expiration for all the legs of the trade. Buy one July 21 put, sell two of the July 18 puts and buy one of the July 15 puts.

Trade Profit

With the VXX trading currently just above the $119 level, the trade would profit either from the VXX staying here in price or a further drop in price.

The butterfly currently would cost around $1.40 per contract. This would give you a range the VXX could trade in that you could be profitable with between now and the July 17 expiration.

Paper Trade

As always, paper trade this if you don’t fully understand the risk involved.

Contact us about options mentoring.

Profit on AAPL Butterfly today and new trade

May 14 Blog featured a live Butterfly trade in AAPL I put on for around .49 debit and took off today for $2 credit. Did the trade 9-18-9 and made $150 times 9 butterflies or around $1300 on an investment of around $450.

Do I normally leave a trade like this on all the way to expiration? Not usually. This particular trade , I was comfortable with the 125-133 range AAPL has been in.

As long as AAPL didn’t break through 133 or under 125, I was going to try and milk the cow. I was on vacation last 3 weeks and left the trade on, not the norm for me, but it worked great.

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New Live Trade: May 14, AAPL was around $128 and I put on the $128 Butterfly at-the-money because I felt AAPL was in the middle of the range. Today AAPL is at 127.56  -1$  for the day.

The last 3 weeks AAPL has traded between 127.4 and 132.57. I am doing a live butterfly 9-18-9 in the July 2 expiration in the calls. I am buying the 126 strike 9 times , selling the 129 strike 18 times and buying the 132 strike 9 times.

Total debit of .67 and I’m doing it 9 times, so 9 times $66 or $603 excluding commissions. I get $1 per contract with no ticket charge.

I am doing this slightly bullish, looking for a little pop in AAPL up towards $129 over the next 2 weeks. I just did the trade live at 2:47 central time for .67 debit  9-18-9. Will monitor this and follow up on this trade in a future blog.

GOOGL Iron Butterfly

Today, I am looking at an interesting trade set up in GOOGL. For over the last month, GOOGL has been trading in the 530 to 560 range. The strategy would look to take advantage of that continuation.

  • I’m looking to enter into a GOOGL iron butterfly in May 5 expiration period that is 16 days from expiration (expiring on May 29th). GOOGL is currently trading in the 542 area.
  • Look to sell the 540 put and buy the 520 put, and then sell the 545 call and buy the 565 call. This gives the trade a 45% probability of profit or probability that the price will stay between the breakeven of the strategy. Currently, you can put the trade on for a credit of around $11. It will be $2000 in margin if doing 1 contract and you will subtract your credit from that so the cost of the trade should be around $900-$1000.
  • Take the trade off at a 10% profit or a 15% loss. Again, look for GOOGL to continue being range bound through the rest of the month.

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Wrong Data on AAPL, new prices and strikes for Bullish Butterfly

I apologize, used wrong price information on AAPL. Was looking at AAPL in our back testing software and had the wrong date. What to do today. AAPL is backing off again today and sits around the $126 level. Shock? No, the stock is still up 15% over the first 4 months of the year! I still like the stock and am comfortable in this 124-126 area establishing a slightly bullish limited risk strategy like an Bullish Call Butterfly. Focusing on the calls in the May 29 expiration series. I’m considering this Bullish Call Butterfly. Buy one 126 strike, Sell two 128 strike, Buy one 130 strike. Total debit is $20. If I do the trade 1-2-1, total debit or cost or risk is $20. If I do the trade 10-20-10, the total debit, cost, or risk is $200.

Wrong Data on AAPL , new prices and strikes for Bullish Butterfly

I apologize, used wrong price information on AAPL. Was looking at AAPL in our back testing software and had the wrong date. What to do today. AAPL is backing off again today and sits around the $126 level. Shock? No, the stock is still up 15% over the first 4 months of the year! I still like the stock and am comfortable in this 124-126 area establishing a slightly bullish limited risk strategy like an Bullish Call Butterfly. Focusing on the calls in the May 29 expiration series. I’m considering this Bullish Call Butterfly. Buy one 126 strike, Sell two 128 strike, Buy one 130 strike. Total debit is $20. If I do the trade 1-2-1, total debit or cost or risk is $20. If I do the trade 10-20-10, the total debit, cost, or risk is $200.

Iron Condor or Iron Butterfly, which is better?

Often I am asked as an option-trading mentor, “Which is better, the Iron Condor or the Iron Butterfly?” These are both short Vega trades, meaning that they benefit from volatility lowering, however, the structure is different and the pros and cons of each are different.

The Iron Condor is perhaps the most popular option spread trade. The structure is selling a call vertical and a put vertical out of the money, usually by several strikes. This is what you might call a “strangle”.

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The benefit to this strategy is that it is one short volatility and also it has a wider range for the price to move around, up or down, before you get into any trouble with the trade.

This is a good trade for higher volatility markets and if you feel you need more room for the price to roam.

Which is Better?

The Iron Condor would be better than the more narrow strike Iron Butterfly. The downside of using an Iron Condor is that when it does go against you, it is more difficult to repair and/or you can lose more money because you took in less premium, by selling options that were further from the money.

Overall, though, it does have a good probability of profit greater than that of the Iron Butterfly.

The Iron Butterfly is also a trade that benefits from lowering volatility. It is structured by selling an at-the-money call vertical and an at-the-money put vertical with varying long wing widths.

Risk-To-Reward

The Iron Butterfly has more narrow structures than the Iron Condor, however, it has a better risk-to-reward, because your return can be so much higher on-the-money at risk than with the Iron Condor.

This is because you received more premium selling the at-the-money options. Because it has this greater risk/reward, the Iron Butterfly can be put on in a wider range of markets, both lower volatility and higher volatility.

Volatility

Even though it is short volatility, it still performs well, even in lower volatility markets because of the risk reward.

Of course, both of these trades, require that the price stay inside of a range for the trade to be profitable. The Iron Condor gives you more room and the Iron Butterfly gives you less room for the price to roam. However, overall in most markets, I preferred the Iron Butterfly, because of the increase risk reward.

Questions?

Email Mark Fenton: info@SheridanMentoring.com

Check out Dan’s recent Iron Condor class, CLICK HERE!

SPX Butterfly Trade

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option help, option education, options education, Dan Sheridan, stock market, portfolio planning, financial portfolio, options class, option class, stock option class, stock options class, butterflies, butterlys, butterfly strategies, butterfly options, butterfly option, butterfly strategyWould you like to learn more about Butterflies? Check out Dan’s Butterfly Class 2014 HERE!